Last week, in our Olympic MEGA BLOG PART 1, we did a deep dive into the men’s odds to win gold in Paris. This week, we turn our attention to the women’s side. Similar to the men, there’s one team (Brazil’s Duda Lisboa and Ana Patricia Ramos) that the books consider to be a fairly heavy favorite at +150 to stand atop the podium come August 9th. However, unlike the men’s side, which only has 3 teams at less than +1000, the women’s side is a bit more top heavy, with 6 teams at +900 or better to win Gold. Let’s dig in and take a look at the numbers.
At +150, Brazil’s Duda and Ana Patricia are the heavy betting favorites to win Gold in Paris, now 10 days away. During the 18 month Olympic qualification window, they secured six gold medals, double the next highest, three for USA’s Taryn Kloth and Kristen Nuss (more on them later). AP and Duda added a silver and a bronze, for a total of eight medals, sending them to Paris as the #1 overall seed. Both competed in the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo with different partners, with Duda taking a 9th and Ana Patricia taking a 5th.
They’ve been dominant at times, winning five golds in six Elite 16 events during a five-month stretch last summer. They’ve also had some head scratching missteps, look no further than their Elite 16 quarterfinal loss in the 2023 Montreal Elite 16. Facing USA’s 3rd ranked team in Betsi Flint and Julia Scoles, Duda and Ana Patricia held a 12-5 3rd set lead before ultimately losing 17-15. They haven’t won a gold since May, an Elite 16 in Brasilia, securing a 4th, 5th, and 9th in their final 3 events leading to Paris.
At +350, USA’s Kelly Cheng and Sarah Hughes are the second highest odds to win gold in Paris. Kelly Cheng is the only American with Olympic experience, taking a 9th with then partner Sarah Sponcil. Cheng and Hughes finished 4th in the Bet The Beach ranking system, taking two golds and two bronze medals during the qualification window. They won the most important tournament of the window, the 2023 World Championships, beating AP and Duda in straight sets, 21-16, 24-22.
Cheng and Hughes haven’t been as consistent as USA’s other team, Taryn Kloth and Kristen Nuss (+500), who won one more gold and three more medals. However it could be argued that Cheng and Hughes’ peak was higher with the World Championship finals win over AP and Duda, while TKN has three finals losses to Brazil in Hamburg, Paris, and Brasilia in the last eighteen months.
Kloth and Nuss at +500 is a surprisingly good value for a team with the second most gold medals during the qualification window. In only their third full season on the international tour, TKN secured two 9ths, two golds, and a silver medal in the five tournaments they entered. They’re no strangers to adversity, winning gold at AVP Atlanta in 2021 over Kelly Cheng and then partner Sarah Sponcil in their first AVP Gold Series event, seeded 4th out of the qualifier.
The Netherlands’ Stam and Schoon (+600) and Switzerland’s Brunner and Huberli (+800) are the next two best odds to win gold. Stam/Schoon lost in the lucky losers round in 2020 in Tokyo, while Tanya Huberli (with then partner Nina Betschart) took a 9th. Stam and Schoon have been incredibly consistent during the Olympic Qualification window, albeit unable to secure a gold medal in that time. Meanwhile Brunner and Huberli have made it to the top of the podium once, with two silver medals as well.
Latvia’s Tina Graudina and Anastasija Samoilova sit at +900 to win gold, with a silver and two bronze medals during the qualification window. Unlike every player mentioned above, Tina and Anastasija are the only two to have competed in an Olympic medal match, losing and taking a 4th in 2020 in Tokyo to Switzerland’s Anouk Verge-Depre and Joanna Mader. They’ve finished 3rd, 3rd, and 9th in their last 3 events and appear to be playing their best volleyball at the right time.
Maybe the best value pick of the bunch is Canadians Melissa Humana-Parades and Brandie Wilkerson (+1100). They secured a gold medal and three silver medals in the 18 month qualification window. They both competed in the 2020 summer Olympics in Tokyo, both taking 5th place finishes with different partners.
Mel is one of the best defenders in the world, and Brandie’s jump serve (new last season) is one of the toughest on tour to pass when she’s got it going. Combine that with one of the most intimidating blocks in the world, and they’re almost criminally undervalued from an odds perspective, a great opportunity to sprinkle a little and hope Canada can string a few good days together.
Working our way down the list, if you want to have some fun with a long shot that has a shot, take a look at Germany’s Muller and Tillmann at +2000. They took a gold just two days ago at the Vienna Elite 16, beating the defending Olympic Bronze medalists in the finals. I would be remiss to not mention as well Italy’s Valentina Gottardi and Marta Menegatti (+8000). They have three bronze medals at the Elite 16 level and, when they’re playing well, can compete with anybody on tour.
Next week: Olympic MEGA BLOG Part 3. We’ll make our final selections, share our bet slips, and get ready for the Olympics which will be 3 days away come next week. Are you ready?!?!? We sure are.
Chris DeTurk – July 16, 2024
Bet The Beach 
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