Since the 2024 Olympic qualification window opened, Bet The Beach has been collecting data. Using our innovative new points tracking system, we assigned points totals for 9th place or higher results in Elite 16’s and select Challenge events. Is our point system arbitrary? Absolutely. Does professional beach volleyball already have too many unique and separate points systems? Without a doubt. Did we create another one anyways? You bet.
For the next three weeks, we’re 100% Olympics. All due respect to Gstaad, the longest running and most popular international event, and a slightly watered down field in Vienna this coming weekend, we have eighteen days remaining to preview the biggest event on the beach volleyball calendar. Next week, we’ll do a deep dive on the women’s side. This week we’ll dig in to the men’s field. Let’s go…
On the men’s side, it’s Sweden, then everyone else. Bet The Beach’s top ranked team in points, David Ahman and Jonathan Helvig finished the window with 7 gold medals, 4 more than the 2nd place team, Norway’s Anders Mol and Christian Sorum. They’re currently listed at +175 to win it all, compared to +350 for Norway. The last time they didn’t win a tournament they entered was back in March, an Elite 16 in Qatar that Netherlands Boermans and De Groot (+1200) took Gold.
At +350, Norway’s Mol & Sorum are a great value pick. They have as many total medals (nine) as Sweden does, three of each color. They would undoubtedly have more if they hadn’t been forced to skip three events this past spring due to an Anders Mol foot injury. They’ve shown the ability to compete at the highest level since their return in Ostrava, making the semifinals both times and taking one bronze in Gstaad last weekend.
Germany’s Ehlers & Wickler (+1100) are Bet The Beach’s 3rd ranked team via points. They have shown remarkable consistency, taking a 5th or better in the last six straight Elite 16’s. However, they have not been able to break through and take gold anytime during the qualification window, and I would be very surprised if that trend changes in Paris next month. If your local book offers Odds to Podium, and you can get them at +800 or better, take it and run. But I wouldn’t touch Germany at +1100 to take Gold.
Brazil’s George and Andre (+800) are coming off a silver metal in Gstaad, their second silver medal in 2024 (Tepic, Mexico). Like Germany, they haven’t been able to win an Elite 16 final yet, but with four Elite 16 medals in the qualification window, there’s a good reason they hold the 3rd best odds to win gold in Paris.
The remaining teams on the board that have won a gold medal in the last 18 months are Czechia’s Perusic/Schweiner (+900), USA’s Partain/Benesh (+1200), and Netherlands’ Boermans/De Groot (+1200). All three have shown the ability to win at the highest level, however last year’s World Champs (Czechia) have not podiumed in 2024. If you’re looking for a great value pick, maybe sprinkle a little on USA or Netherlands at +1200. Either could win it all.
The final team I might sprinkle a little and hope for a miracle, is Italy’s Paolo Nicolai and Samuele Cottafava at +2500. Nicolai took a 5th in 2012 in London, a 2nd in Rio in 2016, and a 5th in 2020 in Tokyo with then partner Daniele Lupo. Nicolai and Cottafava made the semi’s and took a 4th just last weekend in Gstaad. The Olympics are a longer format tournament, with only one game played per day maximum, benefitting an older player like Nicolai. I don’t think they’ll win, but at +2500, it’s a bit tempting.
Make sure to join us tomorrow for Bet The Beach Live, 9p ET, 6p PT on our YouTube channel. We’ll dive deeper into the odds to win, recap Gstaad, recap the qualifiers from Vienna (started earlier today), and a whole lot more.
Chris DeTurk – July 9, 2024
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